Baker vs Looney 2020

Andy threw me off a little with his very first move. Andy says on his page about Homeworlds that he likes to start with red and blue stars in his homeworld. I have known this "fact" for longer than I have known the rules of the game. (Andy referred to the b2-r1 homeworld as his standard as recently as summer 2017 in Homeworlds Theater Four). I told Andy I was surprised by his starting move, and Andy informed me that he now prefers yellow-blue. This unnerved me since I've recently been losing to yellow-blue homeworlds on SDG.

I was feeling reasonably pleased with my chameleon factory move, even though I didn't get the two y3's I had wished for. Then this move knocked the wind out of me. I had no avenue to a second large ship. I desperately needed to keep Andy from building that y3.

Position after 14...
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I spent so long choosing this move that Andy commented on it. Despite all the thinking, it was probably my worst move of the match. I successfully stalled Andy from getting y3 temporarily, but I lost material and progress in blue and yellow, the very colors I needed for homestar catastrophes.

This is what I should have done back on move 15.

Andy immediately heads toward my now-vulnerable colony in B.

I miss my chance to make B a less attractive target.

Andy's invasion forces me to make a hard choice about what to save and how.

Position after 23...
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This move keeps a couple of my ships from being captured, but as a homeworld attack, it is premature. After sacrificing y2, I don't have enough ships for my 3b/3y Doomsday machine (notation explained here), and it's much safer to have a complete victory plan before launching a homeworld invasion. I believe I invaded early for emotional reasons: I felt pressured by Andy's attack and I was desperate to feel like I had some control, even though I knew Andy would have the initiative again after the catastrophe.

After finishing the first phase of my Doomsday machine, I need to build yellow for phase two. The danger of delaying the second phase of a Doomsday machine is evident: my blue attack left the A system fatally vulnerable. Andy can ruin the next phase by going on the offensive. Moving r3 from E to A is probably his best move. I would be left with only three ships after either of my most likely responses (either overpopulating with red or sacrificing y1 to save one r2 while leaving the other r2 to be captured).

Position after 26.
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Another mistake from me. Even though Andy didn't invade the A system at his first opportunity on 26..., A is still very vulnerable and building at home was safer. But even if I had made the safer move, it's questionable whether I could have survived if Andy had invaded A on 27....

Andy does not seem to have seen the extent of his danger. The second phase is ready.

Andy outplayed me for most of the game, but it seems like he didn't recognize the threat of my slow-acting Doomsday machine. He mentioned that he thought I had made the common rookie mistake of taking out an enemy homestar at the first opportunity and crippled myself in the process. I suspect this put him off his guard.